History has proved that home advantage always plays a part in a major tournament, particularly the FIFA World Cup. Six of the seven world champions have won on their own turf, Brazil being the exception (beaten finalists as hosts in 1950). England and France won their only title as hosts, Uruguay, Italy and Argentina won their first titles as host nation, while Germany won their second title on home soil.
Many countries who have never won the World Cup have had their best performance when serving as hosts (USA in 1930 for example). No host nation has ever failed to progress beyond the first round.
The 2010 World Cup will be the first to be staged on African soil and to date no African side has reached the semi final stage. A Roger Milla inspired Cameroon reached the quarter finals in 1990 and Senegal got that far in 2002. History does not bode well for African chances but home advantage has never been one the parameters before.
Let’s start with the hosts themselves, South Africa. The 2010 hosts are the lowest ranked hosts of a World Cup in history. Currently ranked 88th in the FIFA rankings, they sit below New Zealand.
Their recent results do not improve confidence and their Group A is tough (albeit better than it might have been) with Mexico, Uruguay & France battling for two places.
It will be an achievement for them simply to avoid becoming the first host nation not to get past round one, however as we saw in Japan & South Korea a smattering of favorable decisions can get the home side a long way.
Should South Africa fall early, the continent will throw their support behind one of the other five African nations. So what of their chances?
Cameroon go into the finals as the highest ranked nation and have the goal threat of Samuel Eto’o. They are the most successful African nation in a World Cup, having reached six finals and the first to reach the quarter finals.
Recent criticism from Old Snakehips Milla of Eto’o’s impact on the national team have seen the Inter Milan frontman threaten to walk out before a ball has been kicked. The allegation is that Eto’o is a player who puts club before country and this disharmony could have a real negative effect on The Indomitable Lions’ chances.
They are up against Netherlands, Denmark & Japan in Group E and can progress if the in-fighting does not derail team spirit.
Nigeria are two places behind Cameroon in the FIFA rankings and have contested four finals, the first being very recently, in 1994.
The ‘Super Eagles’ are coached by Lars Lagerback, the ex-Sweden coach who has plenty of experience in major championships. They came third at this year’s African Cup of Nations and have a good chance of progressing from the group stages with Argentina, Greece and South Korea their opponents in Group B.
They have plenty of experience with many players plying their trade in the top European leagues – the likes of Obafemi Martins, Yakubu, John Obi Mikel, Joseph Yobo and Nwankwo Kanu are familiar names to English football fans.
Ivory Coast are powered by the mighty Didier Drogba and will be playing in their second successive finals.
Recently appointed ex-England coach, Sven Goran Ericksson, will be in charge following a short unsuccessful spell with Mexico and he will be trying to lead ‘The Elephants’ through the toughest section of the draw. Brazil and Portugal are in the same Group G and it could well be Spain or Chile in round two.
An underwhelming African Cup of Nations this year saw them crash out in the quarter finals to England’s opponents, Algeria.
They will be looking for a good showing in South Africa but it’s a huge ask for a team that is hugely reliant on their talismanic but moody Chelsea frontman.
Ghana might perhaps have been the surprise package before they lost the massively influential Chelsea midfielder, Michael Essien. This may be a blow that they will fail to overcome as they are in a tough looking Group D alongside Germany, Serbia & Australia.
This is their second finals appearance after making their debut in 2006 where they reached the last 16.
The Black Stars have won the African Cup of Nations four times and were beaten finalists in this year’s tournament, losing 1-0 to Egypt.
They have an industrious side that Serbian coach, Milovan Rajevac, has made tough to break down and will be difficult opponents in South Africa.
So what chance the Africans?
Ivory Coast appear to have the most talented squad and Ericksson has plenty of experience to extract the best from them. However, they are in the hardest section of the draw and will do well to even escape from their group.
South Africa have by far the least talented squad but could get the rub of the green to help them along the way. Again though, it will be a surprise to see them escape their group.
Ghana also have a tough task to progress beyond the group stage and have lost a vital component of their engine room. Essien is irreplaceable and will be greatly missed.
Cameroon & Nigeria are in favourable groups and can both progress if the team gels. In round two Nigeria would play a side from South Africa’s Group A, none of which should hold too much fear. Cameroon would be up against a side from Group F with Italy, Paraguay & Slovakia the likely opponents. Both of these countries appear to have the best chance and either one could easily find themselves in the World Cup quarter finals come the beginning of July.
